Will Tesla fall away or make a come back later in 2025

Predicting whether Tesla will fall away or make a comeback later in 2025 is inherently uncertain, as it depends on a mix of market dynamics, company performance, consumer sentiment, and external factors. However, I can outline the current trends and potential influences based on available information as of March 5, 2025, to give you a balanced perspective.

Reasons Tesla Might Fall Away

1. Declining Sales Globally: Recent data shows Tesla facing significant sales drops in key markets. In February 2025, sales of China-made EVs fell 49.2% to 30,688 units, the lowest since August 2022, amid fierce competition from rivals like BYD. In Europe, sales crashed across multiple countries—down 76% in Germany, 45% in France, and similarly steep declines elsewhere—despite a growing EV market. Australia saw a 71.9% drop, with Model 3 sales plummeting over 81%. These trends suggest Tesla is losing ground, potentially due to market saturation, competition, or shifting consumer preferences.
2. Elon Musk’s Political Controversy: Musk’s vocal support for far-right parties in Europe (like Germany’s AfD) and his role in Donald Trump’s administration have sparked backlash. Protests like the "Tesla Takedown" in the U.S. and vandalism reports (e.g., arson at charging stations) indicate a growing anti-Musk sentiment that could further erode Tesla’s brand loyalty, especially among progressive EV buyers.
3. Operational Challenges: Production halts at Tesla’s German factory due to supply chain disruptions (e.g., railway attacks) and upgrades for the Model Y "Juniper" have slowed output. Combined with a lack of new affordable models hitting the market yet, Tesla might struggle to regain momentum in 2025 if these issues persist.
4. Stock Market Pressure: Tesla’s stock has fallen over 40% from its December 2024 peak, erasing post-election gains tied to Trump’s win. Analysts have slashed 2025 earnings forecasts by about 55%, reflecting lower delivery expectations (potentially 17% fewer than 2024). If investor confidence wanes further, Tesla could face financial strain.

Reasons Tesla Might Make a Comeback

1. Model Y "Juniper" Launch: The refreshed Model Y, already rolling out in Europe and Asia, is set to hit North America in March 2025. Early reviews praise its improved interior and design, which could reinvigorate demand. Tesla expects it to remain the world’s bestselling car (of any kind) for a second year, and a successful launch could reverse sales declines.
2. Full Self-Driving (FSD) Milestones: Musk has called 2025 a "pivotal year," highlighting the rollout of unsupervised FSD. If Tesla delivers on this promise—potentially starting in June in Austin—it could differentiate the company from competitors and attract buyers betting on autonomous tech. Success here might also bolster investor optimism about Tesla’s AI and robotics ambitions (e.g., Optimus).
3. Resilient UK Performance: Despite global struggles, Tesla’s UK sales rose 20.7% in February 2025, with Model 3 and Model Y ranking among the top EVs. This suggests some markets may remain immune to Musk-related backlash, providing a foundation for recovery.
4. Long-Term Vision: Tesla has weathered downturns before, often rebounding with innovation. Investments in 2025 (e.g., new affordable models expected mid-year) could set the stage for growth in 2026, even if this year is rocky. Supporters argue current dips reflect inventory adjustments and competition, not a permanent decline.

What to Watch For

• Sales Data: If Q2 2025 shows stabilization or growth, especially with Juniper’s rollout, a comeback becomes more likely. Persistent double-digit declines signal deeper trouble.
• FSD Progress: Demonstrable success with unsupervised FSD could shift the narrative from sales woes to tech leadership.
• Consumer Sentiment: The extent of Musk-related boycotts—and whether they fade—will be critical. X posts reflect mixed sentiment, with some predicting a $600 stock price (wave 5 optimism) and others noting rising used Tesla inventories as a red flag.
• Competition: BYD and legacy automakers (e.g., Volkswagen, Stellantis) are gaining ground. Tesla’s ability to counter their pricing and offerings will shape its trajectory.

My Take

As of now, Tesla faces serious headwinds that could worsen through mid-2025, particularly if sales keep sliding and Musk’s controversies amplify. However, a late-2025 comeback isn’t off the table—success with Juniper and FSD could spark a turnaround, especially if Tesla regains its "wow factor." Historically, Tesla thrives on defying skeptics, but this time, the challenges feel more structural than cyclical. It’s a coin toss, leaning slightly toward struggle unless execution is flawless later this year.

My thoughts are 5 years from now this will have all blown over and the skilled employees that work at TESLA will produce great products..I do however believe the competition will be fierce but the TAM (Total Addressable Market) will be immense..